FAO and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have urged Eastern African countries to step up surveillance and prepare for possible Rift Valley fever outbreaks as El Niño brings heavy rain and flooding. According to FAO Newsroom, the countries assessed as most at risk are Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.
The viral disease affects livestock including sheep, goats, cattle, buffaloes and camels, and can also infect people. Mosquitoes are its principal means of transmission, while infected animals moving between locations can spread it further. People can also contract the virus through direct contact with infected animals or their products. Flooding can increase mosquito breeding grounds while disrupting veterinary services, complicating prevention and response.
FAO Newsroom said the current El Niño was nearing record strength, with conditions comparable to 1997–98, when Eastern Africa experienced one of its largest recorded Rift Valley fever epidemics in people and animals. Southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and central and southern Somalia face the heaviest forecast rainfall, with a probability above 90 per cent of totals exceeding 400 mm. Wetter-than-usual conditions are also expected in Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.
The October 2026 forecast from FAO’s Rift Valley Fever Early Warning Decision Support Tool indicates that conditions favourable to transmission will spread across much of Eastern Africa between October 2026 and January 2027. Tanzania currently has the widest area classified as suitable, followed by Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan and southern Sudan. Additional suitable areas have appeared in southern Somalia, Rwanda and Burundi, with further expansion expected, including in Uganda.
The agencies are asking countries to target surveillance according to risk, position vaccines and essential supplies in advance, and improve co-operation between sectors and across borders. Their alert promotes a One Health approach linking animal, human and environmental health. FAO’s warning tool combines satellite observations, climate forecasts, surveillance information and expert assessments to identify elevated outbreak risks up to three months ahead, supporting earlier preparedness to protect livestock and livelihoods.