Brazil’s iron ore export performance is diverging between major terminals, with stronger shipments from Tubarão contrasting with a decline at Ponta da Madeira. Hellenic Shipping News — Dry Bulk, publishing analysis from Signal Group, reported that the implications for freight depend on vessel types, contractual arrangements and Atlantic ballast arrivals, rather than export tonnage alone.
Estimated China-bound shipments from Tubarão rose 20% year on year to 40.07 million tonnes in January–September 2026, an increase of 6.59 million tonnes. Ponta da Madeira’s corresponding volumes fell 11% to 78.80 million tonnes, down 9.90 million tonnes. Across all destinations, Tubarão’s loadings increased by approximately 6.3 million tonnes, while Ponta da Madeira lost 10.8 million tonnes, underscoring the uneven performance of Brazil’s loading systems.
Forward programmes also show markedly different fleet requirements. Port Insights data dated 28 October listed 67 nominated loading calls covering 13.16 million tonnes at Tubarão, against 57 calls and 14.74 million tonnes at Ponta da Madeira. Tubarão accounted for 44 conventional Capesize calls, compared with 24 at Ponta da Madeira. The latter had a much heavier concentration of very large ore carriers, with 33 nominations covering 10.59 million tonnes. November departure schedules showed a similar split, with 38 conventional Capesize calls at Tubarão and 20 at Ponta da Madeira.
Production constraints provide context for the weaker northern export performance. According to Vale’s third-quarter results cited in the report, Northern System output declined by 6.9 million tonnes year on year to 42.8 million tonnes, principally because of reduced run-of-mine availability at Serra Norte. Higher Serra Sul output partly offset that weakness. Vale retained full-year production guidance of 335–345 million tonnes, although the report cautioned that production and seaborne shipments do not necessarily track each other.
Elsewhere, combined September–October loadings at Tecar and Porto Sudeste dropped to 8.90 million tonnes from 11.75 million tonnes a year earlier, potentially limiting spot Capesize enquiry. By contrast, Signal Ocean Platform data showed Açu’s China-bound shipments rising to 9.18 million tonnes in January–September from 5.15 million tonnes. Signal Group’s analysis concluded that sustained support for C3 freight would require scheduled cargoes to materialise and conventional Capesize demand to absorb available Atlantic tonnage.