India’s draft National Steel Policy: Vision 2047 could drive a major expansion in seaborne steelmaking raw-material imports, with implications across the dry bulk fleet, according to Drewry analysis published by Hellenic Shipping News. Released for public consultation on 10 October 2026, the draft envisages steelmaking capacity reaching 604 million tonnes by 2047, against 220 million tonnes currently, and crude steel output rising to 531 million tonnes from 164 million tonnes in 2025.
The projected expansion would require annual iron ore demand of 772 million tonnes. Drewry argues that meeting this domestically would entail unprecedented growth in mining, ore processing and transport infrastructure. In its illustrative scenario, domestic production of 550-600 million tonnes by 2047 would still leave an annual shortfall of 170-220 million tonnes, potentially taking imports towards 200 million tonnes. India’s ore exports have already fallen from 52 million tonnes in 2020 to 27 million tonnes in 2025, while imports have exceeded 12 million tonnes, the analysis says.
Greater use of electric furnaces would not necessarily reduce India’s raw-material requirements as sharply as in scrap-rich economies. Many Indian operators use direct reduced iron alongside scrap, and much of that material is produced using coal. The draft projects scrap consumption increasing from 36 million tonnes in FY2025-26 to 123 million tonnes by 2047. Although domestic collection is expected to grow, Drewry cautions that scrap supply is unlikely to displace the need for substantial raw-material imports.
Coking coal presents another potential source of freight growth. Drewry forecasts imports rising from 68.6 million tonnes in 2025 to 80.3 million tonnes by 2031, while the draft puts total demand at 236 million tonnes by 2047. India currently imports about 92% of its requirements. Assuming that dependence eases to 80-90%, the analysis estimates annual imports could reach 190-210 million tonnes by 2047.
Cargo origins would determine the scale of the shipping benefit. Drewry identifies Brazil, Guinea and potentially Central Africa as sources of longer-haul iron ore shipments that could increase tonne-mile demand and support Capesize employment. Additional coking coal supplies from Canada, the US and Mozambique could benefit Capesize and Panamax vessels, alongside Australian trade. Rising scrap imports could also provide work for Handysize and Supramax ships. These opportunities remain conditional on India delivering the draft’s expansion ambitions and the development of the relevant supply routes.