Dry bulk shipping faces a gradual loosening of its supply and demand balance in 2027 and 2028, as vessel deliveries accelerate while cargo growth remains constrained, according to BIMCO forecasts reported by Hellenic Shipping News. Uncertainty over access through the Strait of Hormuz is central to the outlook, alongside risks to grain exports from the Black Sea.
About 4% of dry bulk demand normally passes through Hormuz, the report said. Alternative routes have cushioned the disruption but have not restored volumes to their pre-war level. Restrictions have also squeezed energy and fertiliser supplies, putting pressure on global economic growth and increasing food-security concerns. BIMCO therefore sets out two cases: one in which the strait stays effectively shut throughout 2027 and 2028, and another in which unrestricted vessel passage resumes from 2027.
Under the continued-closure case, ship demand is projected to increase by 0.5-2.5% in 2027, against supply growth of 3-4%. Reopening would add one percentage point to both growth ranges. Better economic conditions and stronger Persian Gulf import demand would support commodities other than coal. However, vessels now trapped in the Gulf would also return to normal operations, while slightly higher sailing speeds than in the closure case could further increase available shipping supply.
For 2028, BIMCO forecasts demand growth of 0.5-2.5% and supply expansion of 3-4% under either scenario. Falling coal shipments would limit cargo growth, while bulkers returning to the Panama Canal could curb growth in average voyage distances. More vessel deliveries, particularly in the capesize segment, underpin the softer outlook. Increased recycling would not prevent strong fleet expansion, although average sailing speeds are expected to ease slightly as market conditions weaken.
Black Sea grain availability presents a further risk. The forecast assumes Russian and Ukrainian grain that cannot be shipped in 2026 will be exported in 2027 instead. If those volumes remain unavailable, Gouveia said in the report, dry bulk cargo growth in 2027 could be as much as 0.5 percentage points lower, with grain shipment growth up to four percentage points weaker.